Welcome back to the Road to Phoenix. For the next month and change, I will be previewing as many teams as possible in an attempt to help your bracket survive past the first weekend. Next up, the Purdue Boilermakers.
From: Purdue Sports
Season Outlook
The Purdue Boilermakers are clearly in the top tier of the sport, along with UConn. If you want to read my UConn preview, click here. Purdue boasts the best resume in the country, with wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Arizona, Alabama, and most recently Wisconsin. They have been tested in those games, but have shown the resilience to push forward towards a 21-2 record. Zach Edey is the reigning POY, and is currently a -700 favorite (DraftKings) to repeat. He is the clear leader on this dominant Boilermaker team. The season has not been perfect, as the Boilers have picked up to road losses in conference play. Purdue dropped games at Northwestern and Nebraska. Both games showed some of their weaknesses that I will mention later. They also almost got beat by Northwestern at home last week, but pulled away in OT to secure the win. Purdue will win the Big Ten for the second straight year, and likely head into March as the number 1 overall seed.
From: Mark Lebryk (USA TODAY Sports)
Strengths
Everyone says that this year's team is different than Painter's teams of old, but how? They finally have a veteran presence in the backcourt. When Purdue was getting bounced early, they continually relied on young guards to carry the load in the backcourt. With the addition of Lance Jones from SIU, they get their first reliable veteran guard since Carsen Edwards. Jones serves as the defensive anchor on the perimeter. He also spaces the floor well, shooting 36% from three.
Speaking of shooting, the Boilers finally have balance around their dominant big. The other three starters, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Mason Gillis all shoot over 40% from deep. Loyer has taken big strides in his Sophomore campaign, and is a much more consistent offensive threat.
Obviously this offense revolves around Edey, I don't think I can provide any information that will change your viewpoint on him. He's controversial, but he's dominant for a reason. The spacing on the floor allows Edey to have plenty of room around the rim to go to work and grab boards.
All of this would not work without the second-year breakout of Braden Smith. The Sophomore guard is the straw that stirs the drink for this Purdue offense. How he got left off the Cousy award finalists, I have no idea. He is clearly one of the best guards in the country. Smith averages 12 points, 5 boards, and 7.5 assists on the best statistical offense in the country (KenPom).
Weaknesses
While I mentioned the strides both Smith and Loyer have taken in their games, they can still be shaky. Older, athletic veteran guards, can give them a lot of problems. Both of their losses were against veteran backcourts who have played a lot of games together. If they run into an older team in March, it could be the end of the road.
This Purdue team is about as good as the one that nearly went to the Final Four in 2019. And yet, the past three years gives me pause. They fell to a double-digit seed three straight times. For whatever reason, it seems like the Boilers tighten up in the tournament, and it leads to their demise.
Their final weakness resides on the defensive side of the ball. While very strong, they have some concerns. In conference play, they are dead last in defensive turnover percentage. They cannot turn teams over, which lets the better programs stay in games (Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin). Purdue also has a knack for letting teams torch them from the perimeter. When the opposing team gets hot, it puts a lot more pressure on the offense to create buckets outside of Edey. And when Purdue has to rely on their team to match a hot shooting night, it leads to a lot of problems.
From: Mark Osentoski (USA TODAY Sports)
Tournament Outlook
At the end of the day, Purdue is elite this year. They have all the makings of a national championship team. They have beat the best teams in the country. Purdue has dominated Big Ten play. No, this team will not be bounced in the first round again. Be warned though, a veteran team that plays together and plays hard could knock the Boilers out early. I feel pretty confident saying Purdue can make the national championship this year, so do not be scared to pick them to go far.
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