Welcome back to the Road to Phoenix. For the next month and change, I will be previewing as many teams as possible in an attempt to help your bracket survive past the first weekend. Next up, the North Carolina Tar Heels.
From: UNC Athletics
Season Outlook
Hubert Davis's first season as UNC head coach was a resounding success. The Tar Heels went on a miracle run to the national championship, ultimately falling short to Kansas. In 2022, they were the preseason number 1. The wheels fell off, and it led to a missed tournament and Caleb Love hit the road. Heading into 2023, no one really knew where this team would be come March.
North Carolina seems to have shaken off whatever last season was, and they are a legitimate national title contender. They have one of the more interesting resumes in the sport as of today. The Heels have beaten Tennessee, Kentucky, Duke, and Oklahoma. But then they drop games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. UNC does have a good strength of schedule, ranking 15 on KenPom. In their remaining 7 games, only Virginia and Duke have a legitimate shot at beating them. Worst case scenario, the Heels finish 24-5. Best case, UNC finishes at 31-5, with a pretty strong case for a 1 seed.
From: Grant Halverson (Getty Images)
Strengths
This UNC team is not like those of old. Roy Williams placed a heavy emphasis on offense and transition. Under Hubert Davis this year, the Heels are 6th in the country and 1st in the ACC in defensive efficiency (KenPom). This is likely due to the length and athleticism this team possesses, with guys like Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. They are long on the wings, giving them the ability to disrupt ballhandlers and passes into the post.
North Carolina also has one of the best players in college basketball: R.J. Davis. Davis is one of the two best guards in the country (Dalton Knecht), and carries the load offensively. He uses his elusiveness and burst to get downhill in a flash. Inside the arc, Davis is shooting 44.7%. The true advantage Davis has over defenders is his polished offensive game. He can score at all three levels, and shoots free throws at a 90% clip. From deep, he shoots 41% from three, and that number increases if you only look at ACC play. You can bank on R.J. Davis going nuclear in March for this Tar Heel team.
Weaknesses
Their superstar player is sometimes hampered by the players around him offensively. Outside of Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram, North Carolina does not have a ton of firepower. It's really a three-headed monster with little balance. The Heels also cannot stretch the floor outside of Davis and Ingram. Cormac Ryan was brought in from Notre Dame to be a shooter, but has struggled in his first year in Chapel Hill. They've been slightly worse since conference play started, which makes me worrisome for the tournament.
From: Bill Streicher (USA TODAY Sports)
Tournament Outlook
The North Carolina Tar Heels have a glaring weakness. In order to make a run, they need someone outside of their big three to step up. Despite their lack of balance, I can rely on the talent of R.J. Davis to supersede any limitations on the roster. Davis is primed to take over the sports media world with signature tournament performances. Looking into national championship futures, they are +15000 on DraftKings. I will be posting my March futures on Twitter, so go follow us by clicking here. This team makes it out of the first weekend comfortably, but anything can happen once you get to the Sweet 16. Take the Tar Heels to go far, and if your bracket ends up with them winning it all, you can be confident in your bracket.
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