Welcome back to the Road to Phoenix. For the next month and change, I will be previewing as many teams as possible in an attempt to help your bracket survive past the first weekend. Next up, the Houston Cougars.
From: Ryan Weaver (Houston Athletics)
Season Outlook
Many people (not me), expected Houston to take a step back as they entered the new Big 12. It was a big step up in competition, but I believed they were ready for it. And ready for it they have been, as they are currently in sole possession of first place in the conference.
The Cougars are 16-3 overall, with all three losses coming on the road in conference play. They played a close game @ TCU, got off to a slow start @ Iowa State, and could not drum up enough production in the Phog. Outside of those three losses, Houston has sneakily picked up wins over very solid tournament teams. They smacked Dayton around for 48 minutes. They put the beat down on Texas Tech. Houston also has good road wins @ BYU and Texas. Their out of conference resume lacks a big win outside of Dayton, but that's par for the course for a Kelvin Sampson team.
From: Houston Athletics
Strengths
Unlike the other first two teams I previewed, Houston's calling card resides on the defensive end of the court. You may think of defensive teams as boring, which most of them are. The Cougars are different. If you turn on the TV to a Houston game, you will fall in love with their defensive intensity.
They are tough, and play fast and physical for 48 minutes straight. They get all up in your business, and do not care what you try to throw at them. Houston will straight up beat the shit out of you for the whole game, testing your toughness. They want to see you break.
At the core of their defensive principles is blitzing the ball screen. Houston is one of the only teams in college basketball that can pull this off. Pick and rolls are the most common action run in the sport. Instead of switching or hedging, the defender of the screener sets up even with the ball handler, forcing him backwards. This leads to a trap, and the other three Cougars rotate to take away passes. Houston ranks first in defensive efficiency at KenPom, and are top 10 in the country in nearly every single defensive metric.
Weaknesses
While they aren't horrible on the offensive side of the ball, it is definitely the worst part of their team. A majority of their production comes from their starting five. If you can disrupt the Houston offense, it won't be easy to beat them, but it gives you a lot better chance.
The Cougars do not shoot the ball particularly well, with really only one shooter on the roster. Baylor transfer L.J. Cryer shoots 38% on 8 attempts per game, but Houston does not have another player shooting above 36% from deep.
While they are clearly the best defense, teams can get consistent scores on them. Your team needs a multitude of veteran ball handlers that can handle pressure well and see the court. If you can get skip passes off, Houston will let up good looks from three and in the paint.
From: Houston Athletics
Tournament Outlook
Beating Houston is not easy. It takes a nearly perfect offensive game, and a really solid defensive performance. They do not have Marcus Sasser anymore, which leaves them void of a true superstar. All of this said, the Cougars are going to be a very tough out in March. Houston has made the Sweet 16 in four straight tournaments, and I do not see the streak ending this year. This team can also win it all. If you believe in good defense beating good offense, pick them to go far in the tournament.
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