From: February 8

Welcome to The Road to March, a new series from Next Man Up. Over the next month, we will be previewing teams daily that have a chance to make the big dance. These previews will include a season outlook, key contributors, key wins, key losses, and the ceiling and floor for the team in the tournament.

Next up, the Tennessee Volunteers

SEASON OUTLOOK:

Defense, defense defense. It’s Rick Barnes’ calling card, and this year is no different. The Volunteers are atop the KenPom rankings in defensive efficiency, posting a score of 84.0. Tennessee has held 17 of its 23 opponents to under 60 points, stifling their opponents regularly. Arizona, widely considered one of the top offenses in the country, was held to 75 points. The Vols’ defense has been utterly dominant this season, which is why they are ranked number 6 in the most recent AP Poll. They are led by their three key seniors: Santiago Vescovi, Tyreke Key, and Josiah Jordan-James. Rick Barnes also brought in a five-star freshman Julian Phillips to bolster his roster. Unfortunately, Phillips has not been allowed to take over the offense, and the team is suffering because of it. Tennessee is second in the SEC and is waiting for their top 10 matchup with Alabama next week. They have some big wins over Kansas and Texas.

KEY CONTRIBUTORS:

The Vols feature more of a platoon of scoring, rather than one guy taking charge on the offensive end. Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler, Olivier Nkamhoua, and Josiah Jordan-James are all averaging double figures. Julian Phillip has had moments, but not consistently enough to rely on him come tournament time. He regularly shoots the ball under five times a game. The four main contributors account for nearly 61 percent of all of Tennessee’s scoring.

KEY WINS:

Neutral Court vs 8 Kansas: 64–50

Home vs 24 Auburn: 45–43

Home vs 10 Texas: 82–71

KEY LOSSES:

Home vs Kentucky: 63–56

Away vs Florida: 67–54

Neutral Court vs Colorado: 78–66

CEILING:

Just like every other Volunteer team of the past, Tennessee can guard. They make you uncomfortable and turn games into rock fights. Their defense can carry them a long way, and players like Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Zeigler have shown that they can score in March Madness. If Tennessee can get regular, consistent scoring, they can beat anyone in the country.

The Tennessee Volunteers’ ceiling is the Final Four.

FLOOR:

The only problem is, that offense is not consistent. They are 62nd in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, with a rating of 111.3. They currently sit behind teams like Michigan and Syracuse in the offensive rankings, two teams who are on the outside looking in of the tournament. If a team can match Tennessee’s toughness and intensity, I cannot see how the Vols can overcome a poor shooting night. Their defense will keep them in every game for the rest of the season, I just question how long that can last.

The Tennessee Volunteers’ floor is the Round of 32.