From February 1
Welcome to The Road to March, a new series from Next Man Up. Over the next month, we will be previewing teams daily that have a chance to make the big dance. These previews will include a season outlook, key contributors, key wins, key losses, and the ceiling and floor for the team in the tournament.
The first team we will be looking at is the number one team in the country, the Purdue Boilermakers.
SEASON OUTLOOK:
Coming into the season, it was looked at as a rebuilding year for Purdue. They lost every major contributor on the roster and lacked a strong recruiting class. Well, that could not be farther from the truth, as the Boilermakers sit at 21–1, atop both the AP Poll and the Big Ten. It started at the PK80 in November, where they boat-raced three tournament teams in West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke. They continued to roll after the tournament and did not lose until the new year, dropping a game against Rutgers at home. They have won eight straight after the loss, and have a big week coming up, playing Penn State tonight, and their in-state rivals Indiana at Assembly on Saturday.
KEY CONTRIBUTORS:
How can we talk about Purdue without mentioning Zach Edey? The Canadian has made massive strides in his game from last year, as he has been handed the keys to the offense. Edey is the favorite for National and Big Ten Player of the year, averaging 22.1 points and 13.0 rebounds per game. The big man has put up some sensational stat lines this year, most recently going for 38 and 13 against MSU. The other big piece of this team has to be their freshman backcourt, consisting of two Indiana natives in Braden Smith and Foster Loyer. They have been playing far beyond their years so far, and are the key for a deep run in March. In a year in which Edey seems unstoppable, teams might look to fluster the guards in an attempt to take down the Boilermakers. They both shoot and take care of the ball well, catching kick outs from Zach Edey all over the court.
Key Wins:
Home vs 14 Marquette: 75–70
Neutral Court vs 12 Gonzaga: 84–66
Neutral Court vs Duke 76–56
Key Losses:
Home vs Rutgers: 65–64
CEILING:
I believe this team can win a National Championship. This is the Big Ten’s best shot at crowning a tournament champion since the 2014–15 Wisconsin team. The Boilermakers are deep, balanced, and have a dominant center capable of taking over games. Barring a catastrophic breakdown, Purdue will have a one seed come tournament time, and have a very real chance of taking home the number one overall seed. Hypothetically, this would give them the easiest path to the Final Four out of every team in the dance.
The Purdue Boilermakers’ ceiling is the National Championship.
FLOOR:
This team is too balanced not to make it to the second weekend come March. After that, who knows what could happen? Matt Painter has been outcoached numerous times in the tournament, and it will likely happen again. Making the entry pass into Edey is the key, pressuring the guards and trying to make them uncomfortable. If a team can do that and shoot the ball well, an upset will be brewing.
The Purdue Boilermakers’ floor is the Sweet 16.