One of the best parts of March Madness is the Cinderella runs. These runs come almost purely from mid-major schools, or schools that are not in the power six of college basketball (ACC, B1G, SEC, PAC-12, Big East, Big 12). With just under two weeks until Selection Sunday, here is practically every mid-major you need to know before you fill out the bracket.
From: Indiana State Athletics
Indiana State
The Sycamores are no stranger to the limelight. For the first time in almost 50 years, Indiana State was ranked in the AP Poll. In a conference that has names like Tucker DeVries in it, how has Indiana State positioned themselves as a shoe-in to the tournament? Because of one man, "Cream Abdul-Jabaar", Robbie Avila. Avila has quickly become a college basketball sensation this season. The Rec-Spec sporting center is one of the best mid-major players in the country. Avila averages 17 points and 7 rebounds on elite efficiency. The roster around Avila is no slouch either. Per KenPom, the Sycamores are #1 in Effective FG%, and top 15 in 3pt%, 2pt%, and FG%. Simply put, this offense is elite.
What is a possible downfall of Indiana State? They don't cause a lot of turnovers. They also do not block a lot of shots. If a higher seed with more talent comes into their matchup with a solid gameplan, it could cause an early exit for the Sycamores.
The Mountain West Conference
The Mountain West has been one of the best conferences in the country. They are in line for six bids in the tournament, something rarely heard of from a mid-major. San Diego State is the class of the conference, coming off the heels of a run to the title game last year. They are elite defensively yet again, and have a superstar in Jaedon LeDee. They are team best equipped to make a run.
Both New Mexico and Colorado State have elite backcourts. Guard play wins in March, and both of these teams are capable of winning that way. Donovan Dent, Jamal Mashburn, and Jaelen House combine for 45 points a game for New Mexico. Isaiah Stevens averages a hair under 17 ppg and shoots 45% from deep. New Mexico and CSU are dangerous teams to draw come tournament time.
Utah State doesn't wow you away on either side of the court, they are just a really solid team. The Aggies don't shoot it particularly well from deep, but their two best scorers are capable of getting hot. Boise State is the last team out of the Mountain West, and are looking to go to back-to-back tournaments. The Broncos are good defensively, and limit the three extremely well. Opponents shoot 30% against Boise State, which is 14th in the country. A team that relies on shooting could be in for a rough night against Boise.
From: David Kadlubowski
Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon is coached by March Madness legend Bryce Drew. Drew has taken GCU to the tournament a couple of times, but this is his best team by far. They get to the line with elite efficiency, and shoot 75% from the charity stripe. The Lopes also grab offensive boards at an elite rate. Defensively, Grand Canyon locks down inside the three point line. The key to beating Grand Canyon is controlling the turnover battle. They turn opponents over at a high rate, but also give the ball away at an alarming rate. A veteran backcourt spells trouble for the Lopes come tournament time.
FAU and South Florida
FAU had one of the more memorable runs in recent history. The Owls have had a down year after being ranked inside the top-10 during the preseason, but are still in line for a tournament berth. FAU has tournament experience, not something many mid-majors have. Every major contributor from last year's Final Four team ran it back for another year. They are in line for yet another 8-seed, but do not feel pressured to pick them to go on a run, as the Owls could easily get beat in round one.
South Florida has been one of the best stories in college basketball. The Bulls are ranked for the first time in program history, but still have work to do if they want to get into the tournament. They host the nation's longest win streak at 14. South Florida relies on their defense to win games. USF limits teams to poor shooting nights regularly. The problem is, their offense is not great. Although they are an awesome story, I do not know if they can go on a run let alone win a game in March.
From: Kyle Terada (USA TODAY Sports)
Princeton
The Ivy League champion is annually one of the better mid-majors in the country. During the mid-point of the year, Princeton was on the outside looking in from the bubble. But they have put it back together, largely on the back of Xaivian Lee. Lee is on track to be a first round pick in this year's draft, as his shifty playstyle lets him get to the rim with ease. Not to mention Princeton runs one of the cleanest offensive systems in the country. They play at their pace and get good shots on nearly every possession. Princeton will be a nightmare for high flying teams like Alabama to play against.
Dayton
Despite not winning their regular season title, Dayton is the best team in the A-10. They shoot the ball very well, and have a superstar in DaRon Holmes. The two-time All-A-10 forward has finally shown the ability to shoot the three ball consistently. Holmes averages 20 points and 8 rebounds a game. The Flyers are pretty safely in the field, and look to make up for the 2020 tournament where they could have gone on a deep run. Dayton is a solid team who you should pick to win a game in March.
The teams I laid out are the most capable mid-majors that can make a run this tournament. HOWEVER, look for teams like App State, Oakland, and Drake to be frisky if they can secure a bid into the tournament.
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