From: March 23

The Sweet 16 is here! We had a wild weekend in college basketball, but only 16 teams made it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Alabama and Houston have rolled to the Sweet 16, while teams like Princeton and FAU have had to fight and claw to get here. The remaining field is everything we love about March: chaos. We will break down every game this weekend and give you our predictions for the Sweet 16.

SOUTH REGION:

1 Alabama vs 5 San Diego State

The Crimson Tide have shown why they were the number one overall seed. With 20-point dismantlings of both Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Maryland, Alabama has cake walked to the second weekend. San Diego State came into this year with high expectations. Many people saw them as a dark horse Final Four candidate (me included), and Aztec fans saw a team that could rival the success of the Kawhi Leonard team. They, unfortunately, did not live up to the pre-season expectations but were able to earn a five seed. They were a trendy 12–5 upset pick after it came out they were going to match up with the mid-major darlings of Charleston. They dominated Charleston physically and were able to come away with a win. SDSU was then able to get some help, playing 13-seed Furman in the second round. The game was never competitive. The Aztecs rolled Furman, setting up a Sweet 16 bout with Alabama. The Tide open up as seven-point favorites against San Diego State, but I could see it being closer than what the line predicts. San Diego State can match the physicality and depth of Alabama and is very good at controlling tempo. I do not believe they have the shot makers to beat Alabama, but I could see the Crimson Tide getting challenged, something that has not happened all year. It will be interesting to see if Brandon Miller can step up in the spotlight, as he has struggled so far in the Tournament. I will take Alabama cautiously, I believe in their guard play and Brandon Miller’s ability to hit shots.

Alabama 75–70 San Diego State

6 Creighton vs 15 Princeton

Creighton was another team who got a lot of love pre-season and in the early stages of the season. They went to Maui and looked like a National Championship contender. They then lost their starting center Ryan Kalkbrenner and subsequently lost six games in a row. Besides that down stretch, the Blue Jays are 23–6. Many people saw them as under-seeded heading into the tournament and were a dark horse final four candidate for many when the bracket came out. They controlled both of their games wire-to-wire with a couple of dominant individual performances. NC State was unable to stop Kalkbrenner, and he went for 31 points and 7 rebounds. Baylor couldn’t stop Ryan Nembhard, and he dominated the Bears, going for 30 points. Princeton are the darlings of this year’s tournament, becoming the third straight 15 seed to make the Sweet 16. They upset my National Title pick Arizona in the first round, and controlled Missouri for the whole game in the second round. The Tigers are a team where everyone knows their roles, a rare occurrence in college basketball. They work as a cohesive unit, which is whythey have been able to disrupt some of the best offenses in the tournament. Their star is Tosan Evbuomwan, a stretch big that can score relentlessly. They are a great rebounding team and a terrible matchup for just about anyone in the tournament. This is where the Cinderella run ends for the Tigers, as I am about as high as anyoneon this Creighton backcourt. I do not think that Princeton is going to be able to disrupt the duo of Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander effectively, and the Blue Jays are a very good rebounding team with Kalkbrenner, Arthur Kaluma, and Baylor Scheierman. Greg McDermott is a very good half-court coach and will be able to scheme open looks for his squad.

Creighton 81–70 Princeton

MIDWEST REGION:

1 Houston vs 5 Miami

Guards, guards, guards. This matchup is the epitome of the common March Madness ideology: guards win in March. On one hand, the Houston Tigers boast All-American guard Marcus Sasser, along with Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark. Miami does not lack guards either, with ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, Nigel Pack, Jordan Miller, and Wooga Poplar. This is a very interesting style matchup, as Houston wants to play physically and beat you up. Miami is a much more perimeter-oriented, finesse team. The Canes want to beat you from beyond the arc and create driving lanes off their ability to shoot. It should be a back-and-forth affair for most of the game, and a battle of two amazing coaches. I do not understand the lines for this game, as Houston is a 7-point favorite against Miami. Barring late-game fouling and free throws, Miami should be able to keep this a lot closer than the betting lines predict. I am unfortunately going to have to go with Houston, I trust Marcus Sasser to will his team to victory. There are concerns about his health, but after what I saw from him in the second half against Auburn, I have no worries about the groin injury. The Cougs are too physical for Miami and are not going to give up offensive rebounds as Indiana did. Miami is going to have a lot more one-and-done possessions than they did against the Hoosiers, and I do not think Miami can be in a dogfight for forty minutes.

Houston 69 — Miami 64

2 Texas vs 3 Xavier

In possibly my favorite matchup of the Sweet 16, Texas takes on Xavier. Rodney Terry, interim head coach, has masterfully led his Longhorns through controversy to a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Terry inherited a great roster, yet the work he has done is just unbelievable. The shot-making in this matchup is next-level. Dylan Disu is straight-up balling for Texas, putting up 45 points and 20 rebounds in his first two games. They are loaded with transfers, headlined by Marcus Carr, a fantastic guard who produces consistently. Tyrese Hunter is up and down at times, but when he gets going, he’s hard to stop (look at the Gonzaga game). Jabari Rice may have the greatest shot fake of all time, and Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop, and Dillon Mitchell control the glass as well as anyone. On the other side of the court, Sean Miller returned to his alma mater for games like these. Xavier has been revitalized with the return of Miller, and they are rolling on the offensive side of the ball. The Musketeers unfortunately have some defensive woes and they lack a lockdown perimeter defender. Speaking of shot-making, oh my goodness take a look up and down the Xavier roster. Souley Boum, who admittedly struggled in the first weekend of the tournament, is a microwave of a point guard. When Boum gets going, look out. Adam Kunkel was unconscious against Pitt, shooting 5–8 from three in an absolute dismantling of the Panthers. Colby Jones is a legit NBA prospect and can score at all three levels. Jack Nunge is as good of a big man as you are going to find, and he can dominate on both sides of the ball. I cannot wait for this game, and am excited to watch the level of shot-making these teams can produce. Given the inconsistencies of Souley Boum and the Musketeers’ defensive woes, I am going to take Texas in what could be the best game of the weekend.

Texas 79–73 Xavier

EAST REGION:

4 Tennessee vs 9 FAU

Tennessee beat up Duke in a rock fight. FAU took down the Cinderella of all Cinderellas Farleigh Dickinson. Tennesse had preseason hype and has failed to live up to expectations. FAU has won over 30 games, something no one saw coming from the Owls. In a battle of great coaches, I do not think this one is going to be very close. This will be the smallest breakdown you will see, mostly because I do not see how FAU can beat Tennessee. Rick Barnes has his boys rolling, Olivier Nkamhoua has been sensational, and Santiago Vescovi is an elite shooter who can create his own shot. The Vols are not going to let FAU score very easily being the number one defensive team on KenPom. The only way I can see FAU winning is if they control the tempo and turn it into a track meet. Dusty May has fantastic guards, and without Zakai Ziegler, I think FAU has the advantage in the backcourt. The Owls do not play very fast, but they play a whole heck of a lot faster than Tennessee. I am going to take the Volunteers by knockout.

Tennessee 64–52 FAU

3 Kansas State vs 7 Michigan State

Madison Square Garden is going to be hopping for this one. The return of two New York guards, Markquis Nowell and Tyson Walker, is going to be electric. Two awesome coaches Jerome Tang and Tom Izzo will be on the sidelines. I cannot wait for the first game of Thursday’s slate. First-year Head Coach Jerome Tang has been a revelation in Manhattan. When Bruce Weber stepped down, many speculated what direction the program would go. Tang has created a culture that people want to play for, hitting the transfer portal hard with Keyontae Johnson. Tang has an electric duo between Nowell and Johnson, giving fits to every defense they face. They also have a swiss army knife in Naquan Tomlin, able to guard all positions and be put anywhere on the court. The Wildcats are electric in transition, Nowell has a bottomless bag of tricks to throw at defenders. The trio of Michigan State guards have been sensational in the tournament, and I am waiting on a Jaden Akins breakout game. Joey Hauser has given the Spartans much-needed spacing on the perimeter, turning in Brady Manek type performances in the first weekend. At the end of the day, picking this game is picking the better player or the better coach. I am going to take the two best players on the court in this matchup, give me the Wildcats.

Michigan State 71–73 Kansas State

WEST REGION:

4 UConn vs 8 Arkansas

The West Regional is up for grabs. Any four of these last teams can get to the Final Four, and all for different reasons. Arkansas has NBA talent up and down its roster. Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black should be lottery picks. Devo Davis and Ricky Council IV will both hear their names called. Eric Musselman has been able to put together runs in March, going to the Elite 8 the past two years. UConn showed flashes early in the season of being a juggernaut. They are back to that potential at the right time. The Huskies can dominate the interior with Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Their guard play leaves a little to be desired, but Jordan Hawkins is a flamethrower from beyond the arc and is able to hit shots not many others can hit. This is Danny Hurley’s first second weekend in the tournament, an interesting dynamic to see if he can keep his cool. I believe in the Huskies in this one. Arkansas is a poor perimeter shooting team and likes to get downhill to the rim. The Razorbacks’ strengths play directly into UConn’s. I believe Sanogo and Clingan neutralize the rim running, and Jordan Hawkins gets cooking in the second half.

UConn 72–65 Arkansas

2 UCLA vs 3 Gonzaga

A rivalry that has not been named yet, the Bruins and the Zags have given us treats in the NCAA Tournament. Ask any college basketball fan about Adam Morrison crying, or Jalen Suggs heroics in the Final Four. The entire sport is going to have its eyes on Las Vegas tonight, with two giants of the sport colliding with a spot to the Elite 8 on the line. UCLA, a title favorite all year, has been riddled with injuries. The Bruins lost an All-American level defender in Jaylen Clark, an elite shooter in David Singleton, and it looks as though they will miss starting big man Adem Bona. Mick Cronin and company are going to have to rely on their two Senior starters, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell. Freshman Amari Bailey will be slotted into the starting lineup and will have to produce. All of the adversity aside, Jaquez and Campbell are proven winners who just seem to find a way to get it done. Gonzaga is led by their Senior star Drew Timme. Timme, the all-time leading scorer in Gonzaga history, has elite footwork and touch around the rim. He has also shown the ability to distribute this year, causing nightmares for opponents. Timme’s front-court partner, Anton Watson, has been an X-Factor for the Zags since they lost at Saint Mary’s. Julian Strawther is an NBA-level wing who can stretch the floor and get to the rim. Like UConn, they have had shaky guard play, but the trio of Hunter Sallis, Rasir Bolton, and Malachi Smith have all turned in satisfactory performances in the first weekend. Gonzaga’s backcourt is the key to this game, and I am going to bet on the veteran Smith to find a way to produce. This game is going to be a treat and a fantastic nightcap for the day.

Gonzaga 78–70 UCLA

Buckle in folks, we are in for a wild weekend in college basketball, and I cannot wait.