The first weekend of March Madness has come and gone. Jack Golhke, you will be missed. Tyon Grant-Foster, you were one of the best stories in the tournament. Kansas, you got absolutely obliterated and I loved every second of it. The Sweet 16 tips off Thursday, and I'll be previewing each region to give you the four teams I think survive the second weekend.
From: K.C. Alfred (The San Diego Union-Tribune)
1. UConn vs 5. San Diego State
The selection committee wanted to see UConn fail. The Huskies got one of the hardest draws I've seen from a #1 overall seed. Nonetheless, UConn dismantled both Stetson and Northwestern. UConn's streak of wins of 13+ points in the tournament has grown to 8. In March, Danny Hurley turns this team into another animal. So, who does UConn get to face in the Sweet 16? The team they beat to win last year's national championship, the San Diego State Aztecs.
Both of these teams had similar off-seasons following the championship. UConn lost three players to the draft, including their best player in Adama Sanogo. While the Aztecs did not lose players to the draft, their best player Keshad Johnson left for Arizona. Both rosters returned pieces that were expected to take a jump, and take a jump they did. Tristen Newton has been one of the best point guards in America, and Jaedon LeDee has been a wildly underrated player because he plays in the Mountain West.
This game is fascinating to me. The Huskies look like a buzzsaw. San Diego State is in the second weekend again, and have gone through a similar path as last year. Ultimately it comes down to SDSU's ability to shoot the three. In round 2, the Aztecs hit 13 threes on 48% shooting. Brian Dutcher's squad is always going to defend at a high level and rebound the ball effectively. If they can force UConn to respect the outside shot, it allows for Jaedon LeDee to go to work. LeDee has been one of the best players in the country, scoring 32 and 26 points in his first two games of the tournament.
Unfortunately for the Aztecs, I think UConn is too balanced. They can win any type of game, whether that be a rock fight or a shoot out. Hurley has a Plan A, B, C, D, and even E if things aren't working. They are deeper than SDSU, and have too many scorers for the Aztecs to keep up with. I think Clingan will be able to keep LeDee at bay at the rim, giving UConn a slightly comfortable win to go to the Elite 8.
UConn 73, San Diego State 65
2. Iowa State vs 3. Illinois
This might be my favorite matchup of the Sweet 16. What a stylistic clash. Illinois does not play defense. Iowa State pretty much only plays defense. Illinois scores through their big three. Iowa State scores by committee.
Since their loss to Purdue, Terrence Shannon Jr. has been on another level. In his last five games, Shannon is averaging 30.5 points per game. He's getting downhill at a blur, finishing at the rim with ease. Coleman Hawkins is your prototypical stretch five. While he has had his ups and downs at Illinois, Hawkins has finally seemed to settle into a nice role as a Senior.
As much as Shannon and Hawkins get most of the shine, their most important player is Marcus Domask. The SIU transfer has always been a scorer, but his creation has taken a massive step this year. In their first round game vs Morehead State, Domask became just the ninth player and the first since 2019 to record a triple double in the NCAA Tournament. His playstyle is very Jalen Brunson-esque, as the Illini have him post up to the initiate the half court offense. Domask is the straw that stirs the drink for the best offense in the country.
On the flipside, Iowa State is the best defense in the country. T.J. Otzelberger has done an incredible job bringing the Cyclones back to the top of college basketball. Their elite defense preys on the other team turning the ball over. ISU turns their opponents over at the second highest rate in the country, the best of the teams left in the tournament. Their offense is a communal approach, with four players averaging double digits. Tamin Lipsey is their best player, capable of catching fire. The Freshman Milan Momcilovic is an elite shooting threat. Iowa State relies on their defense to win games, but can put up points if they need to.
Iowa State Ilinois is the the ultimate litmus test to see which end of the floor wins. Elite defense or elite offense? This game should be one of, if not the best game of the Sweet 16. As awesome as Iowa State's defense is, I don't think anyone is capable of stopping Terrence Shannon Jr. right now. Give me the Illini off the backs of Shannon and Domask.
Illinois 71, Iowa State 69
The East region has two of the most fascinating matchups in the Sweet 16. UConn and SDSU look to get back to the Final Four. Illinois and Iowa State want to get to Phoenix and make history. It should be an enjoyable weekend. If you want any of our betting picks and tips, check out our Twitter here.
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