By: Sam Smith
Let's go back to August 10, 2024, where the 55-62 Tigers host the 60-68 Giants. AJ Hinch, the manager of the Tigers, decided to throw Alex Faedo on the bump to start the game that day, a reliever. The Tigers at this point are very thin at starting pitching after recently shipping starting pitcher Jack Flaherty to Los Angeles to be a Dodger at the deadline who posted a 2.95 ERA for Detroit in 18 starts. After this trade, Hinch had to pull some strings when it came to managing this ballclub. In this particular ball game on August 10 against the Giants, Faedo threw the first inning giving up no runs despite walking three batters. Brant Hurter pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs, while Shelby Miller and Joey Wentz came into the game and threw an inning each, giving up no runs. The struggling Tigers offense put up just 1 run and lost the game 3-1, falling to 8 games under 500 at 55-63. Detroit was 10 games back of Kansas City and 11 games back of Minnesota for a wild card spot. Fast forward to September 22, 2024, where the Tigers go into Baltimore a half-game back of the Twins and 1 game back of the Royals. Hinch put lefty Tyler Holton on the mound to start the game, another reliever, and another bullpen game by Hinch. 6 pitchers were used in the game giving up 3 runs and winning the game by a score of 4-3. So, just exactly how did these gritty Tigs put themself in this situation?
On the Bump
With this Tigers team, you cannot start anywhere without talking about the pitching. Although the pitching through August 10, before the hot stretch, was not particularly bad, posting a 3.98 ERA (Earned Run Average) which was good for 14th in the MLB, and a 3.81 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) good for 5th in majors, the pitching has gone from good to great. The ERA skyrocketed to 2.67 which leads all of the major leagues since August 11, and a 3.38 FIP 3rd best in MLB. The key to this surge of pitching comes from the bullpen. The Tigers added Brenan Hanifee and Sean Guenther to the 40-man roster on August 1, and they have been nothing but lights out. Hanifee has posted a 2.05 ERA while Guenther has had an ERA of 1.00 since they were called up. Guys Like Tyler Holton, Jason Foley, Beau Brieski, and Will Vest have all been lights out as well, all posting ERAs under 2.20, including Holton who has a 1.01 ERA during this hot stretch. Brieski has started 8 games while Holton has started 4. The starting pitching has been good, not great during this stretch.
Starter Reece Olsen who was having himself a solid year before a right shoulder strain sidelined him for a couple months, has come back for two rehab starts where he has struggled giving up 5 runs in 5.1 innings, 4 of them coming from a Bobby Witt grand slam. Casey Mize has also had 4 starts where he has put up a mediocre 4.87 ERA. However, Detroit has had a pleasant surprise from rookie Keider Montero, who at one point threw 15+ consecutive scoreless innings, even winning American League Player of the Week, but has also had a couple of shaky outings balancing his ERA out to a solid 3.29 ERA. And then there is the ace of this rotation and arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball, Tarik Skubal. Not much needs to be said about Skubal as he leads the AL in wins, strikeouts, and ERA and is looking like the runaway favorite for AL Cy Young. The success of the Tigers staff cannot be credited without a mention of catcher Jake Rogers. Rogers, who has started the majority of games behind the dish, is an elite framer and in the 91st percentile of framing in all of baseball.
At the Plate
Although the pitching has clearly been the main reason for this unexpected run, this offense has become supercharged. Through the first 119 games, Detroit posted a WRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 91 which is considered below average as 100 is league average and was a poor 25th in the MLB. However, in this new era of Tigers ball since August 11, they have improved to a WRC+ of 106, good for 12th in the majors and above average. A big reason why this offense drastically improved can be attributed to just being healthy again. Kerry Carpenter came back and has been fantastic. After going to the IL in late May with a lumbar spine inflammation, Carpenter was sidelined up until August 12 when he made his return against the Mariners. Carpenter made an immediate impact, homering twice in a big 15-1 win. Since the day he came back, he has a WRC+ of 180 and an OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) of 1.006, which are both 4th in the majors trailing only Fransico Lindor, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge, some great company to be in. Riley Greene, who went out right after the All-Star break, and came back after a 3 week absence due to a right hamstring issue, has posted a solid OPS of .814 and a WRC+ of 130.
However, Greene and Carpenter have not been the only impact bats for Detroit. Utility man Zack Mckinstry has been surprisingly excellent with a WRC+ of 128 and a .798 OPS while being able to play almost anywhere on the diamond. Matt Vierling has been playing some good ball, with a WRC+ of 122. After struggling mightily in the first half, the Tigers decided to send Spencer Torkleson and Parker Meadows down to AAA, Meadows being sent down on May 7, while Tork was sent down after 1 game into June. Since being brought up, both Meadows and Torkelson have made an impact with the bat. Tork has posted a 119 WRC+ which is not entirely what Tigers fans hoped for out of the former first overall pick, but it is a step in the right direction. Meadows has also stepped up with the bat, raising his OPS from a horrifying .443 to a manageable OPS of .724. The Tigers are also tied in 3rd place for most pinch hits in the MLB. Hinch is not afraid to make a move and he is spot-on most of the time.
Youth Movement
The youth and energy of this team are the last reason this team is on fire. In fact, this team is currently the youngest in all of baseball with an average age of 26.3. The baserunning has been aggressive and electric, including crucial swim moves made from Wenceel Perez in a game against Kansas City that would eventually be the go-ahead run, and another from Greene against the Orioles sliding into third and scoring that same inning. The defense has stepped up in a major way, which can be attributed to the youth of this team. Parker Meadows in center field is a force to be reckoned with, robbing home run after home run and posting 5 OAA (Outs Above Average). Meadows being in center also impacts outfielders Matt Vierling and Riley Greene who are not awful center fielders, allowing them to excel at a corner outfielder spot and also give Riley Greene less strain on his body. Trey Sweeney, a shortstop who was a piece of the Flaherty trade at the deadline, has been a major upgrade over the disappointing Javier Baez who was placed on the IL and may never play another game in Detroit, hitting at an average rate with slightly above average defense. Colt Keith has gone from below-average defensive play to begin the year, but has picked it up and is in the 82nd percentile of OAA at second base. Detroit also has multiple guys who can make a positive impact at multiple positions. Andy Ibanez has played every position in the infield this year and can even play in the corner outfield if needed while being effective against lefties at the dish. Zack Mckinstry can also fill in at 3rd, short, or second while being capable of a corner outfield spot as well.
Everybody on this team serves a purpose and knows their role. With the genius of skipper AJ Hinch, the nasty pitching staff led by Tarik Skubal and Tyler Holton. The improving offense led by Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene. The baserunning and defense stemming from the youth of this ball club. All of these factors make this team scary going into the postseason and after a win over Tampa, and a loss from Minnesota, Detroit’s magic number is 3, and every American League team in the playoffs should be scared to go up against the 2024 Detroit Tigers.
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